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Egypt Fire Observatory 2018

This report aims to monitor fires incidents during 2018, which occurred within facilities/land sites, agricultural or water areas, based on the press archive. The report covers 2018 incidents which mounted a total of 2220, according to the report’s standards and the press archive on which the research methodology based.

The geographical path of Egypt fire observatory

The geographical path of Egypt fire observatory covers all the governorates of Egypt, according to the available facts. The Observatory mentioned that Giza governorate witnessed the largest number of incidents with a total of 473 incidents followed by Cairo with a total of 386 incidents followed by Menoufia with a total of 170 incidents. while South Sinai had the lowest number with one incident, followed by the Red Sea with a total of 9 incidents.

Incidents according to incident time

The observatory classified 2018 incidents according to incident time – which refers to the month when it occurred – which showed that the largest number of incidents occurred in May with a total of 305 incidents followed by April with 257 incidents followed by June with 207 incidents, while February witnessed the lowest number of 120 incidents followed by November with 137 incidents followed by December, 139 incidents.

Geographical path according to province

The observatory created another classification for geographical path (province) Based on incident location, The Greater Cairo province witnessed the largest number of incidents with a total of 936 incidents, in which the “Residential facility” category top ranked with a total of 611 incidents, followed by the classification of “Industrial facility” with a total of 116 incidents.The Delta province, 404 incidents occurred, in which the classification of “residential facility” also recorded the largest number with a total of 129 incidents, followed by the classification of an “industrial facility” with 82 incidents, while the middle Upper Egypt province witnessed the lowest number with 86 incidents, topped by “animals/ plants farm or garden” classification with 36 incidents. The Northern Upper Egypt province recorded 142 incidents, topped by “residential facility” with a total of 47 incidents, followed by the 33 incidents in “animals/ plants farm or garden” classification.

The statistical path for the number of affected units

The Observatory presents a statistical path for the number of affected units distributed on provinces, which shows that Greater Cairo province witnessed the largest number of affected facilities with 1015 units, followed by the province of Nile Delta with a total 459 units, while middle Upper Egypt witnessed the lowest number with 122 units, followed by Suez Canal province with a total of 176 units.

The number of units affected according to “place of the incident”

For number of units affected according to “place of the incident” classification, “residential facility” recorded the largest number with total of 1348 units affected, followed by “animals/ plants farm or garden” with a total of 385 units, while “charity facility” recorded the least number with a total of 4 units, followed by “public property” with a total of 9 units.

Incident location according to the incident causes

As for the incident location according to the incident causes classification, arson incidents were 62, the unintentional fire reached 2158 incidents, while the classification of “residential facility” recorded the largest number with 1065 incidents (1026 unintentional and 39 arson), followed by classification of “industrial facility” with 310 Incident (305 unintentional, 5 arson), while “charity facility” had 4 incidents (unintentional only), followed by public property with 9 incidents (unintentional only).

The statistical path for the fire cause according to incident place

Observatory states a statistical path for the fire cause according to incident place, “unknown cause” recorded the highest number with 1226 incidents, followed by incidents caused by a short circuit with 655 incidents, the largest number of these incidents was 294 incidents took place in “residential facility”, while the “public property” recorded the lowest number with a total of 2 incidents. While the number of fires caused by flammable materials reached 324, as “residential facility” classification recorded the largest number with 133 incidents. No incidents of fires were reported due to flammable substances under the classification of “charity facility”.

Casualties distribution according to incident location

As for “casualties distribution according to incident location” classification, the total number of casualties was 845 (732 injured and 113 deaths). For the injuries, 415 males and 116 females were injured, while the total of non-specified gender casualties was 201.

 

The observatory shows that residential facilities recorded the highest number of injuries with 376 people (140 male, 91 female, 145 unspecified), followed by industrial facilities with a total of 140 injuries (134 male, 1 female, 5 undetermined).As for deaths, residential facilities headed with a total of 95 deaths (46 males, 49 females) followed by “animals/ plants farm or garden” with 6 deaths (4 males, 2 females).

Casualties according to incident cause

The observatory states that “casualties according to incident cause”, that “no victims” recorded the highest number with 1969 incidents, included 1125 with unknown cause, and 597 incidents caused by short circuit, while the classification of “one victim” recorded 100 incidents of which 37 with unknown cause and 33 incidents resulted from a “short circuit”, followed by “2 to 5 victims” with a total of 116 incidents, of which 48 with unknown cause and 44 caused by flammable substances, followed by “6 to 10 victims” with 26 incidents of which 15 were caused by flammable substances,

 

followed by the “more than 11 victims” classification with a total of 9 incidents included 6 with unknown cause and one incident other classifications.

Non-human losses according to the fire cause

As for “non-human losses according to the fire cause” classification, the largest number of non-human losses were recorded in the incidents with unknown cause with a total of 1408 incidents, Followed by In-kind losses with 655 incidents, of which 276 incidents of fire caused by a short circuit which recorded the highest number, followed by 249 with unknown cause, followed by 128 incidents caused by flammable materials. “In-kind and livestock losses” incidents recorded 114 incidents, including 56 incidents caused by short circuit, followed by 30 unknown cause incidents, followed by 28 incidents were caused by flammable materials.

 

Observatory states that number of affected units resulted in non-human losses recorded 2659 units, the largest number of which “undefined number of resulted losses” with total of 1595 incidents, followed by 766 affected units with “in-kind losses”, followed by 207 damaged units resulted in “In-kind and livestock losses”, followed by 89 affected units led to “livestock losses” only, followed by 2 affected units led to “financial losses”.

Number of units affected according to the cause of fire

As for “number of units affected according to the cause of fire” classification the observatory states that the total number of affected units reached 1462 units with “unknown cause”, followed by 775 affected units in which fire resulted from a short circuit, followed by 404 affected units resulted from fire caused by flammable materials, followed by 18 affected units resulted from fire caused by environmental factors.

Number of affected units by method of extinguishing

Observatory classified units according to “number of affected units by method of extinguishing”, in which number of incidents extinguished by civil protection recorded 2525 units to come in top of classification, followed by 120 units with unknown extinguishing method, followed by 14 units in which the fire was extinguished by the people.

Mechanisms for information gathering and information building credibility

Selected date range for research was 2018, covering all Egypt.

Data sources types and information building credibility

First: information sources

Data collection sources are secondary in sociological context and primary in the historical and archival context, decentralized, relying on decentralized local media scattered in the governorates of Egypt, relying heavily on daily and periodic official bodies data, which their data is reliable, which was transmitted literally.

The report contains fact-based information in the incidents which their sources contained information transmitted at the stage where (prosecution investigations findings, forensic report or court decision issued) and information based on the involved parties narration in the case where the sources contain information transmitted at the stage (filing an official report or initial investigation).

Second: Data Collection Methodology and data handling stages

Based on the well-known social sciences methodology Data Triangulation and Data Authentication, we build a large multi-source Synaptic Information Pyramid to support all pillars. Information is checked at different stages of comparison and evaluation, taking into consideration the elements of limitations, context, bias, exaggeration, information lack or overflow. Consequently, most of the cases mentioned in the database have more than one information source, all of which are clarified in detail and transparently next to each case.

Data go through several stages during handling, first stage is context and nature of the data structure and source of information understanding, the information content deconstructing and dividing it into elements (numerical / textual variables), followed by building data classifications stage and filling the information gaps of any of the variables by reconstructing the levels of sources And then constructing descriptive data for the basic variables stage, conclusion of information which is not available at 100% accuracy stage, then the assumptions stage with accuracy not less than 90% and according to academic standards.

And finally a comprehensive evaluation phase for all outputs of information and figures, in terms of their realism and reasonableness, and subsequent operations may be repeated from previous stages.

Third: Sources classification

Sources are classified into three types as follows:

  • Official source: incidents transmitted from State official sources, amounted 2215 incidents.
  • Press source: incidents directly monitored by the press, either by the affected people or by media/press coverage amounted to 5 facts.

Fourth: Information observation methods

At the beginning of the search, using news sites internal search engines such as Youm7, Al-Masry Al-Youm, then using Google search engine, and archival site Masress.

After comparing the results, Masress search engine was found better in terms of results density using the word “fire” as It was the best word in providing results and the only base which research relied on.The research, information clearing process, and statistical framework construction for this observatory took about 3 months.

 

Fifth: Data credibility evaluation

The observatory was based on news sources classified as “official” sources, which relies on security source news, monitored 2215 incidents, and sources marked as unofficial source monitored 5 facts.

Sources were classified in terms of incident coverage quality from researcher point of view to:

  • Good: the sources that has good coverage for incident details as well as some criminal procedure data from the police record number, in addition to determining the responsibility of the incident to “deliberate” and the identification of financial losses, amounting to 931 sources.
  • Average: sources that do not have police record number or information on non-human losses, but provide information on the rest of the details of the incident and its losses, which number 375.
  • Acceptable: Sources that do not have police record number data, and do not cover important details in the incident such as fire method, causes and losses, reached 914 sources.

               

Sixth: Tools used in data collection and archiving

  • The researcher used Libreoffice program for data entry, refine, and perform statistics.
  • The researcher used the search engine “Masress” in the search for incidents.
  • Researcher used Google Maps to infer some areas, police stations.
  • The researcher relied on digital search only.

               

Monitoring map and conceptual framework

First: Facts data

  1. Incident number: Contains numbering of facts from 1 to 2220.
  2. Monthly rate classification: recorded incident time frame based on monthly tabulation.
  3. Incident date: occurrence of incident’s date, was to according the available information. In the absence of such information, the incident was recorded at publishing date of the source.
  4. Region: The geographic region in which the incident took place is clarified to:
  • Alexandria Region: Alexandria, Beheira, Matruh.
  • Delta Region: El Monofeya, El Gharbeya, El Dakahleya, Damietta, Kafr El Sheikh.
  • Greater Cairo Region: Cairo, Giza, Kaliobeya.
  • Canal Region: Eastern, Port Said, North Sinai, South Sinai, Ismailia, Suez.
  • Southern Upper Egypt: Qena, Luxor, Aswan, Sohag, Red Sea.
  • Northern Upper Egypt Region: Minya, Fayoum, Beni Suef.
  • Central Upper Egypt: Assiut, New Valley.

 

  1. Governorate: the governorate that the incident happened in, included all Egyptian governorates.
  2. Incident police department: includes police department which incident occurred in its territory as mentioned in source, or the station that received incident report.
  3. Incident area as reported in the news: The area of the incident, as reported by the news.
  4. Incident detailed location as mentioned in the news: the location of the incident as mentioned in the text of the news.
  5. Incident location: incident place type.
  6. Incident location classification: incident location classified as follows:
  • Business facility: Any establishment having a commercial purpose such as a shop, pharmacy, market, restaurants, and cafes.
  • Educational facility: any institution has an educational purpose such as university, school, institute, and educational center.
  • Charitable facility: Any non-profit service facility, such as an orphanage, charities•
  • Religious facility: any facility for a religious purpose, such as a church, mosque, and the monastery.
  • Residential facility: All facilities for the purpose of housing such as apartment, villa, etc.
  • Industrial facility: Any facility that has any stage of industrial process, such as companies, factories, warehouses, workshops.
  • Medical facility: Any facility that has any stage of treatment or medical services.
  • Governmental property: State property such as administrative buildings, police stations, infrastructure, etc.
  • Public property: Property that is not defined as property and does not follow government property, such as public streets.
  • Animals/ plants farm or garden: contains agricultural areas, greenhouses, and livestock pens.
  • Other: Any facilities/places that do not fall under any previous classification, such as waste, vacant plots of land, trees, and plants with no ownership.
  1. Number of damaged units /facilities: The total number of units affected.
  2. Non-human losses: losses in physical commodity, money, or livestock.
  3. Non-human loses classifications: losses are classified as follows:
  • Losses in kind: Any material losses in the facility.
  • Animal losses: any loss of livestock.
  • Financial losses: Any loss of money.
  • N/A: There was no loss.
  • Unknown: The news did not say whether there were losses or not.
  1. Reasons for incident: A description of incident cause, whether deliberate or unintentional, according to the news.
  2. Cause of incident: incident cause, as described in detail, such as throwing a cigarette, gas leak, or short circuit.
  3. Method of fire: A classification of fire cause, classified as follows:
  • Environmental factors: environmental factors such as high temperature, lightning, or storm.
  • Short circuit: a short circuit that ignited the fire.
  • Flammable materials: any flammable substances such as gasoline, flammable materials, gas, butane.
  • Unknown: Cause of fire was not mentioned.
  1. Fire extinguishing means: How the fire was extinguished; classified into:
  • By civil protection: control and fire extinguishing by civil protection.
  • By residents and neighbors: control and extinguishing of fire by civilians.
  • Unknown: Unknown fire extinguishing method.
  • Civil Protection Reaction: Detailed information on the fire control and extinguishing process

Second: Data of affected people

  1. Total number of people affected: the total number of people affected including casualties and deaths.
  2. Classification of people affected: number of affected people was classified as:
  • One victim: that is, the affected is only one person.
  • 2 to 5: 2 to 5 people affected.
  • From 6 to 10: number of affected people from 6 to 10 people.
  • From 11 to 15:  number of affected people from 11 to 15 people.
  • More than 15: number of affected more than 15 people.
  • None: The report did not mention any affected people.
  1. Number of injuries: The number of people injured in the incident.
  2. Male: number affected males.
  3. Female: affected females.
  4. Unspecified: It was not possible to determine the gender distribution of injured people.
  5. Personal data: The personal data of the injured, such as name, age, and job.
  6. Number of deaths: represents the number of persons who died in the incident.
  7. Male: number of dead males.
  8. Female: number of dead females.
  9. Personal data: The personal data of the dead people, such as name, age, and occupation.Third:

Third: Criminal Data:

police report/ record number: the record of the incident in the official police record.

Fourth: Sources Data:

  1. News Text: text of the news as stated in the source.
  2. Official source: official source link.
  3. Press source: press source link.
  4. Source classification: news source classified to official or press source.
  5. Evaluation of the news: evaluated from the researcher point of view to (acceptable – average – good).

Incidents inclusion criteria

  1. Timeline for monitoring incidents began from 1 January 2018 until 31 December 2018. It was statistically divided into a monthly range.
  2. The geographical track includes all Egyptian governorates.
  3. The Observatory includes the incidents of fires in Egypt, whether intentional or unintentional (due to environmental factors or unspecified causes).
  1. The purpose of the report is to monitor the occurrence of fire in facilities, units or their surroundings, or open areas.
  2. The incidents of vehicle fires have been excluded since they belong to the “Road Accident Observatory in Egypt 2017”, in addition to being in a different context.
  3. The “personal data of the victims’ column has been prepared with a specific hierarchy, written in initiate letters. (taking into account privacy and avoiding harm).
  4. The file is an initial primary inventory. its main purpose is to draw detailed and internal patterns and contexts of the incidents, their data and elements, and may not fully reflect the total cases on the ground according to the same criteria.
  5. The principles of “Non-violation for privacy” and “Do not harm” are part of principles adhered to in this work, and Daftarahwal is not responsible for the extent of professionalism on what is published through media. Bearing in mind that there are deleted links or may be deleted or changed later because of time limitation, or changing the links or closure of media platforms.

Inclusion of incidents Hypotheses

  1. Term “unknown”  was used to indicate the absence of information in the source, does not mean it doesn’t exist.
  2. In the absence of the incident police department in the source, it shall be inferred from the station where it was record or from the area of the incident.
  3. A total of 68 incidents were not identified because their districts contain more than one department and were recorded as “unknown”.
  4. The “approved” incidents which referred to in the news as “with a criminal background”, or in case the prosecution filed a lawsuit against somebody, or that the victim filed a report against somebody, during initial investigations.
  5. The incidents with no information about criminal purpose recorded as unintentional until the opposite is proven.
  6. It is assumed that the date of the incident is same date of publication, unless something else stated.
  7. If there is no affected people mentioned, it is assumed that there are non, and records (0).
  8. If there are injured people mentioned without specified number, it is assumed that they are 3 injured.
  9. When the term “several facilities” is used to express the affected facilities without specifying the exact number, they are assumed to be 3 facilities.
  10. If the news just mentioned incident area, and does not mention or classify the location of the incident, and the area is a residential area, the place of the incident is considered a “residential apartment”.
  11. In case of a single fire incident that hit several facilities with different classifications, the researcher put a hypothesis in the classification of these establishments according to the following:For example, if there was an incident involving “apartment, 2 barns, 3 store” classified according to the following:
  • Classification according to facilities with the largest number: if there were no losses. The incident was therefore classified as a “commercial facility”.
  • The classification according to the facilities with the largest casualties record: in the case of human casualties in an apartment, classified as a “residential facility”.
  • Classification according to facilities with animal losses: In the case of losses in livestock, the incidence is classified as “animal farm”.
  • Classification according to the facilities that contain more material losses: if the goods in the three shops were burned, classified as “commercial facility”.
  • If the number of establishments is equal in number and can not be classified according to the previous assumptions, the priority for classification is (residential facility).
  1. The researcher assumes that infrastructure facilities are government property unless otherwise indicated.
  2. The researcher assumes that the “storages” or any facility are included in the industrial process as “industrial facility”, except that attached to other facilities classification such as “educational, medical, religious” facilities were class

Challenges and Problems

  1. There is no detailed press coverage of the criminal proceedings subsequent to the occurrence of the incident, and the sources sometimes mention that the prosecution initiated the investigation, and mostly does not mention any details.
  2. There was no direct information about a particular department, in about 50% of the incidents, which led to a subsequent search that took a long time.
  3. It was difficult to infer some departments even using advanced search, using Google Maps was used in such a case.
  4. It was difficult to identify duplicate incidents published by the source at a later date because no details were given in the source on which a distinction could be made if the incident was repetitive or new.ified according to original facilities.
  5. The fires that occurred in the wheat crop were assumed to have been inside a storeroom and were classified accordingly.
  6. In case there was doubt about an incident duplication, but the period between the date of publishing of two incidents more than 3 days, is considered a new occurrence.

Attachment

By | 2019-05-14T20:37:06+00:00 14/05/2019 8:24:23 PM|Database, PUBLICATIONS, Social Research Database|0 Comments